Pro Football 2006 Prospectus Review
The tag line to the Pro Football 2006 Prospectus is "statistics, analysis and insight for the information age" but this is a book of so much more.
The almost 500 page guide is a product of the hard work of Aaron Shatz and the good people of the FootballOutsiders.com. While the fantasy draft gurus of the world will drool over some of the deep player positioning stats, this book should be a must read for any NFL fan who wants to dig deeper into the sport.
The bulk of the book is a team by team breakdown of the NFL. Each team has roughly 8-10 pages devoted to them outlining some of the 2005 season and going into the 2006 season. They cover the coach moves, the off season trades and the 2006 draft with remarkable insight. If you are going to read only one part of the book your teams section (Jet fans start at page 114) is well worth the purchase price. Besides the commentary the guide uses a statistical model to project the upcoming season and the chances of getting a top draft pick to going to the Super Bowl. Everything is done with a well humored wit like defining the 2005 New York Jets season with just one word, "Medic!" We laughed and cried.
After reading up on your own team, the next stop has to be the other teams in the division. How are they doing? Who did the draft? What is their 2006 Mean Projection? All the most important things. We found ourselves bouncing from one team to the next getting hungrier and hungrier for more stats, more commentary. Need. More. Now.
The team sections also contain a dizzying amount of statistics. There are week by week break downs, trends, five year performances and strategic tendencies. With each turn of the page a new chart or set of columns with more numbers. The guide has even come up with a few of its own statistical rankings like the Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and the Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR) which are meant to bring a more reasonable way of comparing any two teams or players. You don't need to understand each and every one to enjoy the book, but read the Statistical Toolbox section at the front of the book a bit at a time to get a sense of what they are talking about.
Want More?
The hidden gems in the prospectus, though, are not the teams or the player rankings but the chapters breaking down NFL ideas, myths or questions with statistics. Some of them are just fascinating and are well worth digging around in the book to find. A few of our favorites are listed below.
- Six Degrees of Bill Belichick on pg 116
- Which Ages a Running Back More: Time or Workload? pg 167
- Projecting Rookie Quarterbacks pg 433
- Sunday Night Meltdown pg 449
- The History of NFL Stats pg 463
What about the Jets?
Ok, we know you want the Jets stuff so here are a few of the things that the prospectus had to say about our beloved New York Jets. They are projecting 5.3 wins for the 2006 season which a 38% chance of getting a top 4 draft pick. The good news is they are projecting a 2% chance of winning more than 11 games and being a Super Bowl contender. That is 2% of pure joy and better odds than winning the lottery or making it through the season without losing at least two of our players. Hang in there Jet fans, we will make it through together.
Summary
If you are a fantasy football player you shouldn't have read this long as you should be out buying and reading this guide before you go down to this. Go. Now! If you are just the average fan looking for some insight, a different point of view or just something to do until the season starts pick up this book and settle down for a great read. The best compliment we at Jet Kingdom can give this book is when left on the coffee table here at headquarters for a moment we came back to find it being devoured by our spouse who proclaimed it "really, really interesting." Enough said.
Available at Amazon.com